Looking Forward, Kenneth Jr. [best android ereader txt] 📗

We believe that if we are able to determine what people really want here on earth, we will be able to anticipate the general directions in which men will go in building the civilization of the future. We will inquire into the “mind” and “heart” of man to see what he really seems to want most. We will see if there have been values that have been on a steady upswing for centuries. If we are successful in correctly pinpointing the values and ideals that human beings will most desire in the future, we will be on our way toward accurately predicting the type of civilization that lies ahead of us.

Values are only a first step. To know what man really wants is most helpful, but it is equally important that we accurately pick the method of thinking that he will use to try to get what he wants. For example, man has always placed a high value on good health. But simply having this value is not enough. The methods of thinking that accompany a value have a lot to do with whether it will be achieved. Thinking methodology that was in vogue during past centuries resulted in seriously ill people being bled by barbers. Blood-sucking leeches were considered a necessary item in the doctor’s bag. In contrast, the methods of thinking in use today in the field of medicine often call for a blood transfusion.

In the past if an idea sounded plausible, people believed it. If an authority said something was true, it was generally accepted. It was very rare for a person to say, “I don’t care how reasonable it sounds or who says it’s so, I want to make some careful tests to see for myself.”

Thus, the methods of thinking that people employ play a big part in determining what kind of civilization they have.

A third factor that interacts with the value structure and the methods of thinking is the technology of a given age. For example, as a consequence of our value structure, we want to travel to the moon. We use scientific methods of thinking to arrive at the basic theories that show us how to get there. But if the state of technology does not yield a metal strong enough and light enough to build spacecraft, we’re not likely to set foot on the moon.

Our technology has been slowly evolving for the last 600,000 years. It was a great day when prehistoric man first picked up a stick and used it as an instrument to achieve greater control over his environment. The invention of the wheel was a big step forward. But there has been more technological development in the last half-century than in the preceding 600,000 years. Computers, automation, and the development of atomic power enormously enhance man’s potential to achieve whatever values and ideals he chooses.

Now you know how we are going about this. If anyone wishes to spell out in useful detail some of the forms of our future, we believe he must pick the right horse in three different races:

He must correctly assess what man will want to do—what he really values most.

He must accurately find out how he’s going to try to do it—what methods of thinking he will rely upon most.

He must analyze the tools that man will have for accomplishing what he sets out to do—he must pinpoint the significant technological developments that will play major roles in the future.

All three factors interact with each other. The value structure not only influences the method of thinking and the technology, but it is, in turn, influenced by them. The method of thinking that man employs is affected by his value structure and the technology of the age, but it also plays a part in modifying both of these. Similarly, the technology of any given civilization interacts in a mutual way with the value structure and the method of thinking. These pregnant factors might be viewed as three gears that mesh with each other.

Now you have a way to judge how well we accomplish what we set out to do. If you don’t feel that we have picked the trends that will play the largest part in shaping the future, then you probably won’t accept the type of civilization that we describe in Part II of this book. If, however, you feel that we have correctly assessed the dominant trends in mankind’s value system, if you feel that the method of thinking has been accurately pinpointed, and if you view technology in the same vein, then you may be intrigued by our projection of the experiences of a man and woman in the twenty-first century.

4. Our Values Chart Our Course

Many people have pessimistic feelings about the future. Perhaps the enormous growth of technology that enables man to build bombs that can destroy a city, automobiles that kill more people than wars, and planes that exceed the speed of sound give them a “What’s next?” feeling. Perhaps some of the pessimism is due to the failure of economic, social, and political inventions to keep pace with the developments of physical science.

Many people identify the future with the value system projected by Aldous Huxley in Brave New World and George Orwell in 1984. These authors had an important message for us. They pointed out that if we choose values that ignore the inner needs of man, we can create a horror here on earth. Orwell wrote of a society in which technology was used to the ultimate to curtail freedom of thought and action. A television camera in every apartment enabled secret police to see what was going on. The only way for an individual to have any privacy was to turn his back to the camera and speak softly. This was modern technology implementing a value system of the past. Most science fiction uses an inadequate system of crude values that conflict with man’s need to be a free spirit enjoying the potentialities of life.

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