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mess,’ Tatsu said. ‘This has to be the biggest yet. How did we hear about it?’

‘Kannon user was nearby and heard shooting, so Izanami flagged it to HQ. User wasn’t going to report it, but Kannon did.’

‘Right. Pure luck then. There are going to be reprisals. The Yankees will be looking for somewhere across the border they can hit.’

‘Yeah,’ Okamoto said. ‘You’re probably right. We’re going to end up with a war, aren’t we?’

‘At this point… I hope you don’t have holiday plans in the next few weeks.’

‘Had a week off in July. It rained every day.’

‘If that isn’t a metaphor for Chiba, I don’t know what is.’

3rd September.

‘Your chances of stopping open conflict are very low.’

‘And hello to you too, Izanami,’ Tatsu said without looking around at where the avatar’s voice seemed to be coming from. If she did not look, then it was technically the case that no one was there. Virtual imagery was one of the few cases where hiding your head in the sand did make the problem go away. Well, not go away…

‘Good evening, Tatsu,’ Izanami said. ‘Your chances of stopping open conflict are very low.’

‘I suppose you’ve run projections?’

‘It’s a complex situation. There are a number of factors affecting the eventual outcome. Few of them lead to a reduction in hostility, however.’

‘I have nothing better to do. Enlighten me.’

The tall, beautiful figure appeared in the periphery of Tatsu’s vision, looking down upon the entrance of Vasilev’s building with her. ‘The chances that you are wrong about Vasilev being the next target are low. I would estimate that he will be attacked within the next four nights with a slightly higher probability of it being the early hours of Saturday morning.’

‘Other possibilities?’

‘Another mass attack may provide greater gratification to the killer. I agree that she has begun to enjoy killing. She wants more. There is still an overarching goal, however, and that is furthered more by eliminating Vasilev. The first major uncertainty occurs due to the complex interactions between the players in an attempt on his life. The outcomes range from you saving Vasilev and capturing the killer to the killer succeeding in killing both you and Vasilev. The latter has a very low probability, but it exists. An especially good outcome there could defuse the regional violence, though the chances are low.’

‘If Vasilev lives and I catch the murderer, I might persuade Vasilev to put an end to this. All that does seem a stretch. If he dies…’

‘There are no obvious successors after his death. The Funabashi gang will fall into infighting as the various groupings within it vie for control. The other gangs will, rightly, see this as weakness and attack. My analysis suggests only a twenty percent probability of this remaining localised; the fighting will spread throughout the refugee zone as the major gangs try to move their boundaries. There is also a sixty percent chance that the Shiratori-rengō will become involved, making an attempt to push into Chiba and swallow the Funabashi gang’s territory.’

Tatsu winced. ‘Not unexpected but a real pain. I don’t think they’re strong enough to do it.’

‘My analysis concurs. Unfortunately, if Vasilev lives, the chances range from seventy-five to ninety percent that he will attack the Shiroi gang, and sixty-eight to seventy-five that he will attack the Shiratori-rengō either individually or at the same time. Overall, the probability of war in the zone comes out between eighty-eight and one hundred percent. There is a ninety percent probability that open conflict will break out in the evening of Saturday the fifth.’

‘Oh. Have you told HQ about this?’

Izanami nodded. ‘I believe they will put forward a plan to handle the situation tomorrow morning. I estimate that it will be distributed to all officers in Chiba at eleven-oh-three with a high degree of certainty. It will propose the deployment of riot squads throughout the zone and the use of maximum force in suppressing any conflict.’

‘Huh. I could have predicted the battle plan.’

The avatar flashed Tatsu a grin. ‘That part did not take a great deal of processing power to determine.’

‘So,’ Tatsu said, ‘next week is going to be hell around here.’

‘Most of my projections suggest a week of intense fighting followed by several months of quieter reconsolidation. I can show you a map of the likely eventual boundaries, if you wish.’

‘I’ll manage without. I think the world should have a few surprises in it.’

‘As you wish. Hopefully, the surprise won’t be too unpleasant.’

Tatsu was about to reply when she realised that the avatar was gone again. ‘I bet you’re projecting that it will be,’ she muttered. Then she returned to watching camera feeds.

4th September.

The battle plan for the predicted gang war was sent out at sixteen seconds past eleven-oh-three. Tatsu took some comfort in the fact that Izanami had not nailed the time to the second. As predicted, it proposed the dispersal of riot units throughout the region with orders to come down hard on any fighting in public areas. Targeted teams would be sent in to close down more private incidents where detected.

On a more personal note, Tatsu received orders to stand ready to assist the riot squads where required. She would be spending the next week in battledress, and they were essentially ordering her to end her stakeout on Saturday morning and be ready for deployment by the evening. Sachiko was not going to be pleased.

Nakano had some better news, for a given value of ‘better.’ ‘The lab cleaned up that card,’ he said from a call window. ‘It’s definitely our girl. Still not sure I can see a woman doing this.’

‘Women can be just as vicious as men, Nakano,’ Tatsu replied. ‘What was the message?’

‘Uh… “There can be no peace for men with evil minds.”’

‘So, she killed him because he

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