E-books and e-publishing, Samuel Vaknin [motivational novels .txt] 📗

to receive additional clarifications and

instructions and to convey information gathered from their

environment (mostly, from the user).

This is part fo the philosophy of the JAVA programming

language. It deals with applets - small bits of software - and

links different computer platforms by means of software.

Put differently:

Future servers will contain not only information (as they do

today) - but also software applications. The user of an

application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be

driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the

ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself

wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive

storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central

computer. This computer will contain the needed software,

broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime

the user wishes to use one of the functions of the

application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When

finished - he will “return” it. Processing speeds and response

times will be such that the user will not feel at all that it

is not with his own software that he is working (the question

of ownership will be very blurred in such a world). This

technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about

the future shape of the computing industry as a whole

(desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a

little more than dumb terminals). Applications are already

offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service

Providers).

 

In the last few years, scientists put the combined power of

the computers linked to the internet at any given moment to

perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing.

Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from

outer space, meteorological data and solve complex equations.

This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.

2. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective

Computer

LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate

offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect

geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity

(branches of a bank, daughter companies, a sales force). Many

LANs are wireless.

The intranet / extranet and wireless LANs will be the winners.

They will gradually eliminate both fixed line LANs and WANs.

The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to all the

members of an organization.Sophisticated firewall security

application protects the privacy and confidentiality of the

intranet from all but the most determined and savvy hackers.

The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network,

constructed on the platform of the Internet and which enjoys

all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and

suppliers as well.

The company’s server can be accessed by anyone authorized,

from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than

international - communication costs). The user can leave

messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information -

proprietary or public - from it and to participate in “virtual

teamwork” (see next chapter).

By the year 2002, a standard intranet interface will emerge.

This will be facilitated by the opening up of the TCP/IP

communication architecture and its availability to PCs. A

billion USD will go just to finance intranet servers - or, at

least, this is the median forecast.

The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to

one of two obstacles to the institution of the Intranet. The

second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit

the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).

It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the

Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet

phones come out (slightly) distorted.

All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from

installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by

the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have

50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.

At the end of 1997, there were 10 web servers per every other

type of server in organizations. The sale of intranet related

software was projected to multiply by 16 (to 8 billion USD) by

the year 1999.

One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability

to transfer documents between the various parts of an

organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per

day internally in 1996.

An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected

by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence. This notion has its charm.

Consider a newspaper: it can give access to all the materials

which were discarded by the editors. Some news are fit to

print - yet are discarded because of space limitations.

Still, someone is bound to be interested. It costs the

newspaper close to nothing (the material is, normally, already

computer-resident) - and it might even generate added

circulation and income. It can be even conceived as an

“underground, non-commercial, alternative” newspaper for a

wholly different readership.

The above is but one example of the possible use of the

intranet to communicate with the organization’s consumer base.

3. Mail and Chat

The Internet (its e-mail possibilities) is eroding traditional

mail. The market share of the post office in conveying

messages by regular mail has dwindled from 77% to 62% (1995).

E-mail has expanded to capture 36% (up from 19%).

90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to

time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion

messages traverse the internet daily.

E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included

in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated

what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many

people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature

of the Internet. Microsoft continues to incorporate previously

independent applications in its browsers - a behaviour which

led to the 1999 anti-trust lawsuit against it.

The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail.

Already there are applications (Intel’s, Vocaltec’s,

Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone

conversation through his computer. The voice quality has

improved. The discussants can cut into each others words,

argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or

more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same

software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near

future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate

this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multimodality: the

user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail,

receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing

the flow of the conversation.

The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that

free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic

will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.

This beats regular phones.

 

The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of

the parties will be represented by an “avatar”, a 3-D figurine

generated by the application (or the user’s likeness mapped

into the software and superimposed on the the avatar). These

figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their

own communication patterns, special habits, history,

preferences - in short: their own “personality”.

Thus, they will be able to maintain an “identity” and a

consistent pattern of communication which they will develop

over time.

Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide

visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its

electronic “mind”. It could narrate the news, like “Ananova”

does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more

pleasant affair.

4. E-cash

In 1996, the four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape

and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure

payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is

supposed to mushroom by a factor of 50 to 25 billion USD. Site

owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or

fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted

an honour system to collect donations from visitors. Dedicated

visitors will not be deterred by such trifles.

5. The Virtual Organization

The Internet allows simultaneous communication between an

almost unlimited number of users. This is coupled with the

efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files.

This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are

the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual

collaborative (“Follow the Sun”) modes.

Examples:

A group of musicians will be able to compose music or play it

- while spatially and temporally separated;

Advertising agencies will be able to co-produce ad campaigns

in a real time interactive mode;

Cinema and TV films will be produced from disparate

geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never

meet, except through the net.

These examples illustrate the concept of the “virtual

community”. Locations in space and time will no longer hinder

a collaboration in a team: be it scientific, artistic,

cultural, or for the provision of services (a virtual law firm

or accounting office, a virtual consultancy network).

Two on going developments are the virtual mall and the virtual

catalogue.

There are well over 300 active virtual malls in the Internet.

They were frequented by 32.5 million shoppers, who shopped in

them for goods and services in 1998. The intranet can also be

thought of as a “virtual organization”, or a “virtual

business”.

The virtual mall is a computer “space” (pages) in the

internet, wherein “shops” are located. These shops offer their

wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor

passes a gate into the store and looks through its offering,

until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a

feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the

product and waits for it to arrive by mail. The manufacturers

of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or

software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as

file downloads.

Yet, slow communications and limited bandwidth - constrain the

growth potential of this mode of sale. Once solved -

intellectual property will be sold directly from the net, online. Until such time, the intervention of the Post Office is

still required. So, then virtual mall is nothing but a

glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the

only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.

Websites which started as “specialty stores” are fast

transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls.

Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy

and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music,

video, electronics and many other products. It started as a

bookstore.

This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual

catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to

broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential

consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no

matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally

generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of

wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer

preferences and goods in transit) - and prices (sales,

discounts, package deals) change in real time.

The user will enter the site and there delineate his

consumption profile and his preferences. A customized

catalogue will be immediately generated for him.

From then on, the history of his purchases, preferences and

responses to feedback questionnaires will be accumulated and

added to a database.

Each catalogue generated for him will come replete with order

forms. Once the user concluded his purchases, his profile will

be updated.

There is no technological obstacles to implementing this

vision today - only administrative and legal ones. Big retail

stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to

arrive. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the

feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data

mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data.

The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet offshoot: the “smart (shopping) agents”. These are AI

applications with “long memories”.

They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then

suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites,

catalogues, or virtual malls.

They